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Midterm Year Seasonality Swings Favorable for Stocks

Wednesday, October 5, 2022 With so much focus on the equity bear market, inflation, interest rates, the Federal Reserve (Fed) and rising recession risks, it’s perhaps no surprise that the buildup to the U.S. midterm elections has taken more of … Continue reading...

Raising Our 10-Year Treasury Yield Year-end Forecast

Tuesday, October 4, 2022 The LPL Research Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) uses a number of quantitative models to help inform investment decisions. For interest rate forecasts specifically, we utilize a range of econometric models that...

Spending, Inflation Reports Send Mixed Signals

Friday, September 30, 2022 In a Word: “Disappointing” Revisions to July real spending and mixed signals about inflation make these latest economic reports disappointing. Real spending rose 0.1%, after falling -0.1% in July. Real spending was weak in August and …...

How Markets Respond to Drawdowns

Friday, September 30, 2022 “Everything in boxing is backwards.” -Eddie Dupris, “Million Dollar Baby” When markets are down, the natural bias is to sell. But looking at history, the more the S&P 500 is down, the better it does in … Continue reading...

OPEC+ Looks To Defend Higher Oil Prices

Wednesday, September 28, 2022 Oil prices are rising today as hurricanes in North America introduce concerns over possible disruptions of supply, coupled with an easing of the U.S. dollar.  But despite this respite, unease among Organization of the Petroleum...

Lunch Box Stagflation Isn’t Your 70s Style Slowdown

Friday, September 23, 2022 It’s hard not to call what we’re experiencing stagflation at this point, if there are any holdouts left. With growth flat for the first half of the year, growth expectations for the rest of the year … Continue reading...

Fed Gets Pessimistic, Yet Realistic

Thursday, September 22, 2022 A Bit More Pessimistic, A Lot More Realistic The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increased the target rate by 75 basis points (bp) to a 3.25% upper bound and delivered a more pessimistic outlook in their … Continue reading...

High Yield Bond Performance After Recessions

Tuesday, September 20, 2022 Many market participants are expecting the U.S. economy to enter a recession within the next 12 months. A Bloomberg survey of various financial institutions indicates a 50% probability of recession over this period. The high yield …...

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